Monday 18 February 2013

...In the thick of it...

I'm going to sound quite pessimistic in this post.

Something we have been pretty good at with the current squad up until the current run we're in the middle of is bouncing back, quickly, from set backs.

We now have not won for four games since the Blackburn result. It's not so much the fact we've not managed to pick up the points where we perhaps really should have, it's the nature of the nativity and bad luck combined that has left us with just one point from the last 12 on offer.

Now we go to the form team of the moment, Leicester City, tomorrow night. A game in which despite some of our better results and performances against the bigger and better clubs within the division, I simply cannot see us picking anything up points wise.

This game is followed by the home game against Forest. We've not beaten them for 13 years (albeit we've only faced them 4 times since). There's also the returning Billy Davies as manager that should give them a bit of a boost. Maybe in our favor is the fact that their current form is even worse than our own. Even so, I don't really hold up a great deal of hope of us halting the current slide over the course of the next two games.

This could see us headed into March, and the beginning of the final run in. My calculations show that we will probably need 52 points to stave off relegation and a horribly swift return to third division football.

This will leave us with 12 games to achieve 4 wins. (Meaning we will need to hit a run of form where we win one in every three games).

The reality is that to succeed you need to beat whats put in front of you.

Our run in contains 4 play off contenders (h.Burnley, a.Brighton,h.Leeds,a.Middlesboro); 6 Relegation battlers (a.Peterborough, a.Huddersfield,h.Bolton,a.Barnsley,h.Wolves and the final game of the season h.Bristol City). The other two clubs we have to play are away to run away leaders Cardiff and the only mid table, nothing to play for opposition is Millwall at The Valley. A local derby. Ouch!

When you look at those games there are none that look like a shoe in, walk in the park, or straight forward.

It's going to be one of those shut your eyes, clinch your bum cheeks and hope for the best Springs.

Who knows perhaps i'm wrong, we'll pull off a shock win at Leicester, grab the points against Forest and the players will get that self belief and confidence back, and equally importantly only need to pick up 6 points out of the final 36, just 2 wins out of 12 games.

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